--- title: 4th and Goal author: Jake Lowell date: '2020-04-13' slug: 4th-and-goal categories: - Football tags: - NFL description: 'In this post I explore goal to go data, and build a model to predict success on 4th and goal' ---

I am using data from the nflscrapR package to investigate offensive success on goal to go situations on different downs.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Table 1.

Table 1: Goal to go - Average and median Expected points added by down
down	Average_EPA	Median_EPA
1	0.09	-0.10
2	0.09	-0.35
3	-0.16	-0.90
4	0.19	-2.26

If we define sucess as a play with a positive value for excepted points added (epa), we can see

Table 2.

What is sucess rate and TD Rate from each downn ?

down	touchdown	n	Touchdown Rate
1	0	6461	0.7258735
1	1	2440	0.2741265
2	0	4171	0.6860197
2	1	1909	0.3139803
3	0	2439	0.6509207
3	1	1308	0.3490793
4	0	289	0.5700197
4	1	218	0.4299803

down	success	n	Success Rate
1	0	4943	0.5553309
1	1	3958	0.4446691
2	0	3503	0.5761513
2	1	2577	0.4238487
3	0	2301	0.6140913
3	1	1446	0.3859087
4	0	278	0.5483235
4	1	229	0.4516765

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Table 1.

Table 2.

What is sucess rate and TD Rate from each downn ?

Chart 3.

Chart 3.